Grade the Packers draft (A-F) and make
one surprising prediction about a player or the overall draft
pick
Adam: I would give the
Packers an A-. Classic Ted Thompson trading out of the first round to acquire
the first pick of the second and fourth rounds respectively. This also
represented a strategic advantage given that the two picks were the first of
day two and three of the draft. Thompson and the Packers have always drafted
based on the “best available” philosophy, but in 2017 the stars aligned to
acquire a handful of highly regarded talent that also happened to address the
Packers most glaring needs. I don’t think fans could have hoped for a better
positional breakdown than two defensive backs, one defensive lineman, one
linebacker and one running back in just the first four rounds. It was
impressive to get a prototype long, rangy cornerback at the top of the second
round in Kevin King, which addressed the team’s biggest need, and a hybrid
safety/linebacker with Josh Jones later in the round. The Packers, like most
teams are in dime or nickel packages 80-90 percent of the time and Josh Jones
out of NC State has been getting reps in OTAs with the linebacker groups. All
signs point to Dom Capers replicating the personal groupings his 2016 unit was
forced to leverage due to injury that featured Morgan Burnett in a free-lance
dime linebacker position. In a matchup based league, Josh Jones is the perfect
hybrid player who can play the run while having the athleticism to blitz or
cover backs and tide ends in the slot in passing situations. I don’t want to
overlook the Packs first pick in Kevin King who will be relied upon from the
beginning as a physical 6’3’ press corner with fluid hips and 4.4 speed, but I
believe Josh Jones will be the biggest impact player for the Packers out of
this draft. Both King and Jones address the biggest positions of need and
simultaneous fit Capers defense scheme perfectly. For me, Jones has the higher
upside from a playmaking standpoint, which is something the defense has fallen
short on in recent years. I predict Jones’ physicality and flexibility will
earn him significant snaps, increasing the Packers usage of sub packages. My
surprising prediction is that Jones is poised for a rookie season with some
combination of 10-12 sacks, INTs and forced fumbles.
Shane: I give Ted and Co. a
B+. By strategically trading out of the first round, Ted not only scooped up an
extra pick that turned into Wisconsin LB Vince Biegel (who I love) but also got
his man Kevin King. He is a perennial pro bowl CB in the NFL with gifted speed,
athleticism and talent. Exactly what the doctor ordered for a pass defense
ranked almost dead-last in the NFL last year. Plus, Ted can’t miss on three CBs
in a row, can he?? (see D. Randall and Q. Rollins). Solid pickups in later
rounds included a much needed OL prospect, an average-at-best RB (who I am NOT
high on) and another big DB. Moral of the story – Ted filled his needs, didn’t
overreach for any single pick and bolstered the roster where he needed to. My
favorite pick is Biegel and I know it’s unfortunate he broke his foot, which is
the result of him playing banged up his senior year. But he’ll be back by
training camp and will get snaps both inside and outside throughout the year,
helping shore up a shaky LB core from 2016. I think he’s a better overall
player than TJ Watt, but again, he played injured most of his senior season
minimizing his productivity. I don’t know that he’ll necessarily fill up the
stat sheet immediately but I do think he will become a core rotational player
who is relied upon much more than anyone would have thought.
Mitch:
Moving back and still getting Kevin King was a vintage Ted Thompson move,
but once again young, inexperienced DBs will be asked to play a large role in
another potential Super Bowl run. I really like the RB out of BYU, Williams. I
think he will be able to contribute right away to some extent. Other than these
two players, nobody really jumps off the page. Biegel's foot injury now makes
his pick seem less fruitful, unless he is able to make a full recovery and get
back on the field.
Evaluate the Packers 2017-18 schedule
and predict their record, detailing any surprising wins or losses along the
way.
Adam: The first thing that
stands out about the 2017-18 schedule is the difficulty of the first seven
games in combination with the Packers recent habit of slow starts. Seahawks
have an axe to grind from last season, the Falcons Week 2 are opening their
brand new stadium coming off their Super Bowl meltdown and then @Dallas,
@Minnesota and home to the improved Saints before the bye. Wow! The silver
lining is a week 8 bye compared to week 4 last season. McCarthy has been vocal
about his preference for a mid to late season bye in previous seasons. The
Packer’s won’t have the luxury of a slow start like in years past especially
with the need to rely on young talent and early schedule difficulty. In
addition, the Pack ends the season with 3 of 4 on the road including the finale
against division runner-up Detroit. I believe the cold weather road games along
with divisional matchups to end the season sets the Pack up to hit their stride
heading into the playoffs. Prediction: I believe the Packers
will go 11-5 and win the NFC North, despite a 3-3 start which isn’t bad
considering the early schedule. The highlights will be a 5-1 division record,
in addition to key home wins against the Seahawks, Bengals, Saints, Ravens and
Bucs.
Shane: The Green Bay
Packers better be ready to play immediately out of the gate. An 0-2 start is a
real possibility and 0-3 isn’t out of the realm of possibility. But Big Mac
will have his boys ready and start that stretch 2-1, only falling to the Falcons
in their inaugural game at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. I think Green Bay falls to the
Cowboys, who exact some playoff revenge and probably drop 1 of the next 3 NFC
north games – likely the road game at Minnesota. Steelers and Bucs back-to-back
presents a tough little stretch leading into two road games at Cleveland and
Carolina , so 2-2 in that stretch would be a win. New Year’s Eve close at
Detroit will have playoff implications on the line, which is what the Packers
are built for, so I expect a win in that game and another NFC North title at 11-5,
besting the Lions who finish 10-4, the Vikings at 8-8 and the Bears at 7-9. It’s
a tough schedule early and tough road tests late at Pittsburgh and Carolina
that should prime Green Bay for another deep playoff run. The Lions will be on
the heels of Green Bay but per usual, that’s as close as they’ll get
Mitch: Once again the NFL has given Green Bay a tumultuous opening
few weeks; continuing the heated rift with Seattle will be a fun way to open
the season at Lambeau. Opening the new Mercedes-Benz Superdome in Atlanta week two will likely be the toughest test of the season, but will be a good game to
gauge early who will have an impact from our draft class. I think Tampa Bay is
an interesting home game on December 3. Green Bay has lost three of four meetings with Tampa dating back to '05 including two home losses. I see Green
Bay finishing the year 12-4; notably, I see a 6-0 record versus the division
with losses coming to ATL, DAL, PIT, CAR (yes, Green Bay will go 8-0 at home
for the second time in 4 years).
What is one position the Packers did
not address in the offseason that worries you the most? OR one player you wish
the Packers would have signed and why?
Adam: Like most die-hard green and gold fans I was caught holding my breath for the blockbuster signing
of a defensive cornerstone to solidify our championship contention. Daydreams
of Charles Woodson’s free agent signing and even the greatest free agent
acquisition in NFL history when the minister of defense took the Lambeau leap
of faith. As only Ted can, he underwhelmed by not making free agent headlines.
But in Ted we trust as he quietly put together a stable of veteran contributors
with more value than an early bird special at Kohl’s. If you take the emotion
out of Jared Cook’s incredible last second catch to help beat the Cowboys his
injury plagued season and aggressive free agent posture make it easy to prefer
the similar production and better availability of Martellus Bennett not to
mention the flexibility of Wisconsin native Lance Kendricks. Former Packer DB
Davon House, G Jahri Evans and DT Rick Jean Francois highlight a free agent
class of tremendous value and production in positional groups lacking depth.
Okay, I guess I should answer the question now. The biggest area of concern not
aggressively addressed between the draft and free agency would be at running
back. With that said, coach McCarthy has expressed confidence in Ty
Montgomery’s ability to make the permeant transition and the team also is high
on fourth rd. pick Jamaal Williams out of BYU who was a workhorse tailback in
college where became BYUs all-time leading rusher. Williams represents another
perfect fit for the hard hat, lunch pail culture that McCarthy instills. I
can’t think of a better precursor to life in Green Bay than trying to abide by
BYU’s honor code…welcome to the promise land Jamaal. It remains to be seen if
Williams or one of the other two RBs drafted have what it takes to share time
with Ty Montgomery, but it was clear regardless of most fans affinity for the
lovably large Lacy the offense was simply better without him.
Shane: I
think Ted should have added a veteran RB on a low-cost, low-guarantee one-year
deal. He had plenty of options – most notably Adrian Peterson and LaGarrette
Blount – both were available and affordable fits in the Packers offense. Once
again the running game takes a back seat and provides zero threat to a balanced
offense that is needed to get over the hump of playing in another Super Bowl. Look
at the Packers playoff run of 2010-11 and see the RBs stat line – impactful yards-per-carry
to hold defenses in key situations and pick up short yardage first down
conversions. The Packers won’t win or even get to the Super Bowl without a more
balanced running game and sorry to say, Ty Montgomery and rookie Jamaal
Williams are NOT the answer.
Mitch: I am not sure that we left a
position unaddressed so-to-speak, but I can't help but be frustrated with the
"stand by" approach we used as it relates to the back field. Williams
will be a nice, big addition, but when you look at the contracts Adrian
Peterson (base of 3.5 million, likely to earn around 10 million over 2 years),
LaGaratte Blount (1 year, 2.5 million), and Jamaal Charles (1 yr, 3.75
million) got, it is frustrating to consider. I wasn't as disappointed with
staying put defensively and saving money, but I thought we had a real
opportunity to create a Super offense if we would have added a veteran,
ground-and-pound running back.
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